Quelques données factuelles sur les ouragans en Haïti, pour contrecarrer les stupidités à la Rochord Roche

Rochord Roche • 30 minutes ago
Ala peyi gen malchans se Haiti sa a, depi lavalas sou pouvwa li toujou pote devenn ak katastrof natirel pou Haiti. Depi Privert lavalas rive lan Palais Nasyonal la, se dezas natirel ak Lavalas li pote e lap jere selman. Pep la gen rezon pe lavalas konsa a vre. Mwen rete kwe, si se pat lavalas ki te sou pouvwa 12 Janvye 2010, Haiti pa tap konnen cataclysme Goudougoudou ki te frapel la. Mwen rete kwe ke, pou peyi sa a jwen yon souf, e jwen chimen pwosperite, bonne fortune e pou etwal li briye, se pou yo eradike ak epure lavalas Aristide lan peyi sa a epi lape.
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Depuis l'annonce du danger de la catastrophe naturelle, sous chacun des articles traitant de ce phénomène, le dit Rochord Roche, tèt kale grossier et idiot utile, fait un copié/copié de ce commentaire dont, en bon sot qui parade, il semble en être fier.

Les imbécilités de la fachosphère se répandent d'autant plus que, ceux qui pourraient les contrecarrer trouvent inutile et improductif de perdre temps et énergie pour tenter de ramener à la raison des personnes dont les obsessions seraient plus proches de la maladie mentale.

Mais maladie mentale ou pas, les allumés de la fachosphère sont nombreux et non seulement ils sèment le trouble dans les esprits en répandant vulgarités, méchancetés et mensonges, mais de plus ils incitent à la violence.

Minimiser le mal que ces personnes peuvent faire est une erreur. On a vu lors des récents attentats en France, que les terrorristes étaient souvent des "dérangés" qui s'étaient laissés embarquer dans la haine de soi et de l'autre par une propagande malsaine difusée sur le net.

A mon avis, il ne faut jamais mésestimer le pouvoir de la sottise. Surtout dans un pays comme Haïti, où l'usage du "gwoponyèt" et des insultes, tient lieu bien souvent d'intelligence et peut rallier les plus faibles - qui forment de plus la majorité de la population.

Le document présenté est malheureusement en anglais, mais vous y trouverez une carte établie par Max Blanchet qui fait le compte de 59 ans d'ouragans en Haïti, de 1954 à 2013

HAITI -- FIFTY NINE YEARS OF HURRICANES – 1954-2013 Source of data: WIKIPEDIA Prepared by Max Blanchet 6.09.2016
#	Name	Year	Category (1,2)	Areas Impacted In Haiti	Total Fatalities (In Haiti)	Total Damages Billion 2008 $ (3,4)
1	HAZEL	1954	4	Southwest & Northwest	1,187 (1,000)	3.05
2	FLORA	1963	4	Southwest	7,189 (5,000)	3.72
3	CLEO	1964	4	Southwest	217 (192)	1.38
4	INEZ	1966	4	Southern Peninsula	1,000+ (???)	1.5
5	ELOISE	1975	3	Northern Coast	80 (18)	8.4
6	DAVID	1979	5	Center & North	2,068+ Mostly in DR	4.6
7	ALLEN	1980	5	Southern Coast	274 (220)	6.8
8	EMILY	1987	3	North and Center	7	0.12
9	GILBERT	1988	5	Southern coast	341 (40)	10.0
10	GORDON	1994	1	Southern coast	1,147 (1,122)	0.75
11	GEORGES	1998	3	North and Center	608 (209)	8.0
12	LILI	2002	4	Southern Peninsula	15 (4)

HAITI – Fifty-Nine Years of Hurricanes (1954-2013)

Some facts and comments:

§ During the last 59 years, Haiti was hit by 26 hurricanes, or approximately one hurricane every 2.3 years. In the last 15 years, the frequency has increased to one hurricane every 2 years.

§ 2008 has been exceptional to date in that 3 hurricanes and one tropical storm – Gustav, Hanna, Ike and Fay -- have hit the country over a period of 4 weeks from mid August until mid September. Three hurricanes have also hit Haiti in 2007. This could very well be the result of global warming, which is projected by some researchers to increase both the frequency and strength of hurricanes in that part of the world.

§ Most of the hurricanes have been of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A Category 3 hurricane produces maximum winds of 111-130 miles per hour and storm surges of 9-12 feet above normal sea level. See the chart below for a complete definition of the 5 categories of the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The category given for each hurricane listed on the chart below reflects its strength at its peak, which did not necessarily occur while the hurricane crossed Haiti.

§ Most hurricanes (12 out of 24) have hit the Southern Peninsula or parts of it; eleven (10) have hit the northern parts of the country and the others its center.

§ The loss of human life has amounted to 18,286 fatalities, mostly in the Caribbean and the US, with 11,667 (63.8%) occurring in Haiti alone.

§ The impact on Haiti has been particularly dramatic over the years for three reasons:

i) Rapid demographic growth resulting in the doubling of the population during that time frame, from 4.7 million to 10.4 million today. Haiti’s demographic density is 385 inhabitants per square kilometer. Corresponding figures for Cuba and the Dominican Republic are 97 and 192 respectively *).

ii) A massive migration from the countryside to the cities where 50% of the population (5.2 million) reside today. In Port-au-Prince alone the population has grown from 200,000 to 3.0 million today. This has led to the chaotic growth of urban areas with flimsy construction taking place wherever land is available -- on steep slopes, dangerously close to ravines and gullies, and on flood plains.

iii) Massive deforestation: forest coverage has decreased from approximately 50% in the 1950’s to less than 2% today.

§ All in all, these hurricanes have caused economic damages amounting to 109 billion dollars (2008 US $) mostly in the Caribbean and the United States. The figures for Haiti are not available although it is worth noting that Ike has caused damages estimated at 180 million dollars in the agricultural sector alone, according to Mr. Gué, the Minister of Agriculture.

It is interesting to contrast the situation in Haiti with that in Cuba where a strong central government, seconded by equally strong local governments, has managed to control the grave problems confronting Haiti: rapid demographic growth, unbridled migration to the cities and deforestation.

§ It is interesting to contrast the situation in Haiti with that in Cuba where a strong central government, seconded by equally strong local governments, has managed to control the grave problems confronting Haiti: rapid demographic growth, unbridled migration to the cities and deforestation. In addition, the Cuban government has been able to move large number of people to safe locations where their basic needs (shelter, security, food and health care) were met ahead of approaching hurricanes and during their passage. For example, shortly before Ike’s landfall one fifth of Cuba’s population (2.3 million) was moved to safe areas and shelters. Even large farm animals were moved to safe areas. As a result the human fatality rate in Cuba has been only a small fraction of what it has been in Haiti.

§ Unless comprehensive, effective, muscular, and sustained measures are taken to deal with these problems and the related issue of the general inadequacy of governance in the country, we can look forward to similar calamities in the future.

Closer to us, in 2004, Jeanne devastated Gonaïves where at the very least 3000 people died and hundreds of thousands displaced. Unfortunately, as it happened so often in Haiti, the reconstruction and cleanup work was contracted out to private firms on the basis of zanmitaj and fanmitaj with little regard for the competence of these outfits and with the predictable result that the work wa

§ To conclude I will tell two anecdotes regarding hurricanes in Haiti. In 1954, following the passage of Hazel in the Southwest, then President Paul Magloire sent a relief czar to Jérémie to manage the reconstruction and cleanup of the area. So enraged were the Jérémiens over his insensitivity, incompetence, and corruption that they sent a telegram to Magloire asking that he be recalled. Closer to us, in 2004, Jeanne devastated Gonaïves where at the very least 3000 people died and hundreds of thousands displaced. Unfortunately, as it happened so often in Haiti, the reconstruction and cleanup work was contracted out to private firms on the basis of zanmitaj and fanmitaj with little regard for the competence of these outfits and with the predictable result that the work was poorly or not at all executed.

Will the new government learn from these lessons and do what is right in terms of initiating the monumental task of restoring Haiti’s environment in a systematic and honest manner?

*) Multiply these figures by 2.59 to obtain the density per square mile.

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